The matchups that will decide Grand Final day

On Grand Final day it can be the little things which matter most, with individual matchups and extra effort plays often being the difference between glory and heartbreak. 

Among the 34 players who will be on the field across the NRL and NRLW Grand Finals this Sunday, there will be a handful of crucial battles which go a long way to deciding the final outcome. 

Matchups which will decide the NRL Grand Final 

Nathan Cleary v Waqa Blake

The talk all week has been how Cleary and the Panthers can take advantage of Blake by peppering him with bombs, and fair enough, he dropped three of them the last time they met in Finals Week 1 and had no answer for the aerial assault. But this could go the other way as well, and if Blake starts confidently, he will have ruined a key part of Penrith’s kicking plan. The Fijian powerhouse is a player who can make you pay on kick returns as well, and if he can start Parra’s sets on a high before their pack even gets involved, that could spell trouble for the Panthers.

The key stat: Waqa Blake has made 27 handling errors in 21 games this year, the seventh highest average among players who appeared in at least 10 games in 2022.

Dylan Edwards v Clint Gutherson

Both are key attacking weapons for their respective sides, but it's what they do off the ball that will be crucial on Sunday. How they can work towards cancelling out the kicking game of the opposing team will be important to deciding how the battle for field position plays out, and when there are line breaks from the other side, their positioning will determine what the damage is. 

The key stat: Clinton Gutherson has ranked in the NRL's top 10 for distances achieved at speeds above 20 km/h in each of the past two weeks, according to data from the Telstra Tracker.  

James Fisher-Harris v Junior Paulo

So much of what Parramatta do is built off the second-phase generated from the likes of Paulo and his fellow middle forwards, and on Sunday it'll be up to ‘JFH’ to lead the way in limiting that, with his sheer physical presence sure to be crucial when it comes to containing Paulo. Last time they met Fisher-Harris did an outstanding job defensively, finishing with a 97.14 percent tackle efficiency rate. He will need to be right on his game again at Accor Stadium.  

The key stat: Junior Paulo has offloaded 45 times in 25 games this year, making him on average the NRL’s fifth-most prolific offloading middle forward (among players who appeared in 10 or more games).

Matchups which will decide the NRLW Grand Final 

Tamika Upton v Gayle Broughton

Alarm bells start ringing for opposing defences whenever these two pop up with the ball. Upton reads the game brilliantly, and has a habit of turning half chances into line breaks and tries, as was the case last week when she returned from injury with a double. Broughton brings a more physical approach and is a master at breaking the first contact and extending the play, whether that be through an offload or a line break. 

The key stat: In four games this year Tamika Upton has only once failed to both score a try and run for over 200 metres (Rd 1 v Brisbane). 

Millie Boyle v Kennedy Cherrington

Momentum changers in the middle of the park who both set the tone with their energy. Boyle has been outstanding all year, and saved her best for last week when she broke eight tackles on her way to 233 metres and a try. Cherrington meanwhile has been one of the key players in Parramatta's late-season surge and has now morphed into a near 70-minute player for coach Dean Widders. 

The key stat: Millie Boyle has run for over 150 metres in every single game this year, with at least 50 of those metres in each game coming after contact.  

Jesse Southwell v Ash Quinlan

The key link players for their respective sides. Southwell, who doesn't turn 18 until next February, has enjoyed a brilliant debut season, which earlier this week saw her named the NRLW Dally M Rookie of the Year.  After failing to make the cut for the Round 1 squad, Quinlan hasn't looked back since, with her best game of the season coming last week when she scored a try and broke six tackles. 

The key stat: In her first season in the NRLW, Ash Quinlan has set up more line breaks than any other player (six in five games).