Make or break: The key run of games for each team in 2023

Brisbane Broncos

• Round 21: v Rabbitohs (A) at Sunshine Coast Stadium
• Round 22: v Roosters (H) at The Gabba
• Round 23: v Cowboys (A) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
• Round 24: v Eels (H) at The Gabba

Depending on who you ask and how you view partially filled glasses, but the Broncos undeniably had an interesting season last year to say the least. While they just missed out on a finals spot, they had many pundits eating their words mid-season after rising to an unexpected high to be considered a top-four team, only for things to fall apart as the season progressed. In 2023, the Broncos have another tough-looking ending to the season and will hope they have the stamina to stave off the challenge against four teams that all finished above them and played finals. From Round 21 to Round 24, they will face the Rabbitohs, Roosters, Cowboys and Eels, with two of those four matches being played away from home. 

Canberra Raiders

• Round 3: v Sharks (H) at GIO Stadium
• Round 4: v Knights (A) at McDonald Jones Stadium
• Round 5: v Panthers (H) at GIO Stadium
• Round 6: v Broncos (A) at Suncorp Stadium

According to a strength of schedule formula applied to the draw for all the clubs, the Raiders have the so-called "easiest" draw in the competition, but the calculations don’t take into account where matches are played and therefore removes any home ground advantage for a team. It also doesn't factor in which star recruits are arriving or departing at a club, or whether a team will have players available during the Origin period that may impact performance or results", so it’s 100 percent up to how Canberra play against each opponent on any given day. Fans will find out early where their side may be headed, however, with the trickiest part coming between Rounds 3 and 6. That four-game stretch will see them host two top with sides and has two away games to hostile crowds thrown in the mix.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

• Round 5: v Cowboys (H) at Accor Stadium
• Round 6: v Rabbitohs (H) at Accor Stadium
• Round 7: v Eels (A) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 8: v Sharks (H) at Accor Stadium

The Bulldogs showed plenty of bark this past season and played with spirit, but they lacked on bite, so they will be working to turn their effort into results in 2023. Fans will be hoping their young side took the lessons on the past year and that their fresh faces like Viliame Kikau (Panthers), Reed Mahoney (Eels), Ryan Sutton (Raiders) can make a difference, especially when they face off against teams like the Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Eels and Sharks between Round 5 and Round 8. Getting off to a good start will be critical under new coach Cameron Ciraldo.

Cronulla Sharks

• Round 22: v Panthers (A) at BlueBet Stadium
• Round 23: v Rabbitohs (A) at Optus Stadium
• Round 24: v Titans (H) at PointsBet Stadium
• Round 25: v Cowboys (A) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
• Round 26: v Knights (A) at McDonald Jones Stadium

The Sharks had a great 2022, defying expectations to reach the finals, but after sliding out the back door with straight sets losses, fans will be looking to see the side push deeper into the finals. They will want to have winning momentum to help them along their way, which is why strong results from Round 22 to Round 26 will be key. Starting with defending premiers Penrith away before facing fellow top eight finalists the Rabbitohs in a tough away trip to Perth and later, heading north to meet the Cowboys - who downed them in extra time in Week 1 of the finals - it could be a precarious end to their regular season with plenty of travelling involved late on.

The Dolphins

• Round 17: v Eels (H) at Sunshine Coast Stadium
• Round 18: v Broncos (A) at The Gabba
• Round 19: v Titans (A) at Cbus Super Stadium
• Round 20: v Panthers (H) at Moreton Daily Stadium

Despite the talk about the side lacking a marquee playing signing, CEO Terry Reader rightly pointed out their first signing could be considered pretty marquee, securing the services of ‘super coach’ Wayne Bennett. They have assembled a more than solid squad, featuring Grand Final winners in Bromwich brothers, as well as players with Origin and international experience in Anthony Milford and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. While we will all have to wait and see how they perform on the field, one thing we do know is that they will face some trials ahead and in between their two byes in Round 16 and Round 21. The Dolphins will have to overcome two top eight sides from 2022 and will also play in two Queensland derbies - one against the Broncos and one against the Titans - with both teams certain to be eyeing off these games, keen to bring down the new kids on the block.

Gold Coast Titans

• Round 20: v Eels (A) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 21: v Roosters (H) at Cbus Super Stadium
• Round 22: v Cowboys (H) at Cbus Super Stadium
• Round 23: v Warriors (H) at Cbus Super Stadium
• Round 24: v Sharks (A) at PointsBet Stadium
• Round 25: v Panthers (H) at Cbus Super Stadium
• Round 26: v Storm (A) at AAMI Park

Some solid wins at the end of the season propelled the Titans up the ladder to avoid the wooden spoon for a 13th place finish, but they will be expecting nothing less that a spot in the finals this year given the experience gained by their young stars and the quality of their recruits. If all goes well for the Gold Coast crew, their final stretch between Round 20 to Round 26 will just reinforce their strong position, but if not, they have some tough opponents to overcome. Starting with a trip to CommBank Stadium to face the Eels and ending with a trip to AAMI Park against the Storm, the only side they face in that section that did not play finals in 2022 are the Warriors, a side that always get great support when they travel away to Cbus Super Stadium.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

• Round 15: v Dolphins (H) at 4 Pines Park
• Round 16: v Eels (A) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 17: v Storm (A) at AAMI Park
• Round 18: v Roosters (H) at 4 Pines Park

The Sea Eagles recently unveiled new coach Anthony Seibold who is well known for his preparation, so the side should be ready to work in the lead up to their toughest section of the draw when they will likely have several players away on Origin commitments. Backing up for a short turnaround Friday game against the Dolphins, the Sea Eagles kick off a tough stretch against formidable road trips to CommBank Stadium and AAMI Park before returning home to face the Roosters before the bye. 

Melbourne Storm

• Round 20: v Roosters (A) at Sydney Cricket Ground*
• Round 21: v Knights (A) at McDonald Jones Stadium
• Round 22: v Eels (H) at venue TBC
• Round 23: v Panthers (A) at BlueBet Stadium
• Round 24: v Raiders (H) at AAMI Park

Despite making the finals yet again in 2022, some fans would look back in the past season with some disappointment and imagine what may have been if injuries hadn't wreaked so much havoc. Melbourne will field a new-look side next year with some high-profile departures sure to leave a hole, but you can never discount a Craig Bellamy coached side. In their make-or-break section at the very end of the season; the Storm will play four top eight sides from 2022  and will be hosting the Raiders at AAMI Park. Canberra have won the contest the past five times they have travelled to Melbourne; can the Storm finally shake their home hoodoo this year?

Newcastle Knights

• Round 5: v Sea Eagles (A) at Glen Willow Oval
• Round 6: v Warriors (H) at McDonald Jones Stadium
• Round 7: v Panthers (H) at McDonald Jones Stadium
• Round 8: v Cowboys (A) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
• Round 9: v Eels (A) at CommBank Stadium

The Knights only won six of their games this past season, a few by some forgettable margins, but they’ll be hoping some good luck with injuries and the continued good form for World Cup breakout star Dominic Young will help turn the tide in 2023. Newcastle will need to set a positive tone early, and from Round 5 to Round 9, they will want to show fans their new mindset by winning their matches on the road against Manly and the Warriors and putting up a fight against top eight finishing sides Panthers, Cowboys and Parramatta. With a six-day turnaround (including a flight back from Townsville) in between their two back-to-back road trips, it's looming as a pivotal run of games for the Knights as they look for a much improved 2023.

North Queensland Cowboys

• Round 12: v Wests Tigers (A) at Leichhardt Oval
• Round 13: v Eels (A) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 14: v Storm (H) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium

North Queensland made a mockery of ladder predictions and top eight guesses this past year, surging from 15th on the ladder in 2021 to a preliminary finals appearance in 2022. Following that unexpected success, fans will be looking for more, and given the emerging talent for young guns like Reuben Cotter and Jeremiah Nanai, who is going to doubt them? They do face a few challenges however with the 2023 draw, especially near the middle stages. Starting with a road trip to Leichhardt Oval in Round 12 - where they have won just one of their past nine outings - the Cowboys will then face the Eels in Sydney on a six-day turnaround before returning back to Queensland to face the Storm. With Origin players likely to be unavailable throughout this time too, it's shaping as a critical run of games for Todd Payten's men.

Parramatta Eels

• Round 1: v Storm (H) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 2: v Sharks (H) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 3: v Sea Eagles (A) at 4 Pines Park
• Round 4: v Panthers (H) at CommBank Stadium
• Round 5: v Roosters (A) at Allianz Stadium

The Eels get the toughest part of their draw out of the way early in 2023. With a whole pre-season (and pre-season competition) to dust themselves off following the disappointment of this year's Grand Final loss, Parramatta will need to have their heads in the game from the get-go when they host a Melbourne Storm side that will be keen to make amends after their Round 25 loss to the Eels saw them miss the top four for the first time since 2014. Parramatta will also host the Panthers in a grand final rematch in Round 4, while another tricky home game against the Sharks will provide little relief from two tough away games to the northern beaches and eastern suburbs of Sydney.

Penrith Panthers

• Round 15: v Roosters (A) at Allianz Stadium
• Round 16: v Cowboys (A) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
• Round 17: v Knights (H) at BlueBet Stadium
• Round 18: v Storm (A) at AAMI Park

The team to beat, the chasing pack will be hunting after the Panthers next year and looking to knock off their crown. If the defending premiers continue to perform at the level they have been during the past few seasons where they have reached the Grand Final three years in a row - winning two deciders back-to-back - they will no doubt once again have plenty of players selected for State of Origin duties. During that Origin period between Round 15 to Round 18, Penrith face three teams who featured in the 2022 finals campaign in the Roosters, the Cowboys and the Storm, with three of the four games in that time set to be away from Penrith.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

• Round 1: v Sharks (A) at PointsBet Stadium
• Round 2: v Panthers (A) at BlueBet Stadium
• Round 3: v Roosters (A) at Allianz Stadium
• Round 4: v Sea Eagles (H) at Accor Stadium
• Round 5: v Storm (H) at Accor Stadium

Just like the Eels, the South Sydney's most vexing period will be the very start of the season, where they face 2022 top eight opponents in four of their five opening round matches. Starting with the Sharks, Panthers and arch rivals Roosters (all away from home), they also host a Manly side looking to put this past season behind them. They finish this bracket with a game against another top eight side from 2022 in the Storm. If this tough run (and three opening away games) doesn't sap too much energy to start, things are looking relatively strong for the rest of the season.

St George Illawarra Dragons

• Round 11: v Cowboys (A) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
• Round 12: v Roosters (H) at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
• Round 13: v Dolphins (A) at Moreton Daily Stadium
• Round 14: v Panthers (A) at BlueBet Stadium
• Round 15: v Rabbitohs (H) at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

The Dragons could be accused of winning some games they had no right to last year (see: ANZAC Day against the Roosters) and similarly losing ones they should have been able to close out (see: Titans in Magic Round). As such, the whole side will be aiming to produce some winning consistency this year to rejoin to finals race. They do face a particularly tricky period during the middle stages of the season, however, with Round 11 to Round 15 requiring them to face four top-eight sides from 2022 and the as yet unknown entity the Dolphins at Redcliffe. If they can start the season well, and hold firm in the middle, fans may be able to look expectantly toward September football for the first time since 2018.

Sydney Roosters

• Round 5: v Eels (H) at Allianz Stadium
• Round 6: v Storm (A) at AAMI Park
• Round 7: v Sharks (A) at PointsBet Stadium 
• Round 8: v Dragons (H) at Allianz Stadium

The Roosters had a mixed start to their 2022 season and did well to finish as strongly as they did in the end, but coach Trent Robinson will no doubt be seeking plenty of improvement in his side's performances in the early stages of the competition next year. After an early bye in Round 4, they then face the Eels who beat them in their last match in Round 15, the Storm who will be gunning to bounce back following their 18-14 loss in Round 24 and the Sharks, before taking on the Dragons on ANZAC Day - another fixture which they dropped points in last year.

Warriors

• Round 5: v Sharks (A) at PointsBet Stadium
• Round 6: v Knights (A) at McDonald Jones Stadium
• Round 7: v Cowboys (H) at Mount Smart Stadium
• Round 8: v Storm (A) at AAMI Park
• Round 9: v Roosters (H) at Mount Smart Stadium
• Round 10: v Panthers (H) at Suncorp Stadium

The 2023 Warriors will be a whole different team with a new mindset and refreshed outlook having been allowed to plan a season with home games in New Zealand. However, just like the old days, they will be expected to do plenty of travel and next season, an interesting time to navigate will be between Round 5 and Round 10 where they face five teams from the 2022 top eight. They face Sharks, Cowboys, Roosters and Panthers - the latter of which is a "home" game at Suncorp Stadium in Magic Round - while also taking on the Knights in Newcastle and the Storm in Melbourne over a gruelling six-game stretch before their first bye in Round 12.

Wests Tigers

• Round 20: v Knights (A) at McDonald Jones Stadium
• Round 21: v Dragons (A) at WIN Stadium
• Round 22: v Rabbitohs (H) at Scully Park
• Round 23: v Raiders (A) at GIO Stadium
• Round 24: v Warriors (H) at FMG Stadium Waikato

Wests Tigers fans will be desperate to know if their fresh faces and coach have managed to turn their fortunes around by Round 20, but if they are in a scrap for the finals, this run of games - and notably travel - could prove telling. From Round 20 to 24, the Sydney-based team don't play a game in Sydney, travelling from Newcastle to Wollongong to Tamworth to Canberra... before travelling overseas to take on the Warriors in a Wests Tigers "home" game in Waikato. If that wasn't hard enough, the Wests Tigers went a combined 1-8 against these five teams in 2022, meaning they'll need to lift their standards dramatically to benefit from this tricky run of games.