Matters of state: Who makes the NSW backline?

Brad Fittler has a few big decisions to make around his NSW Blues side for Ampol State of Origin I, none more so than his backline with at least 10 players vying for five spots for the series opener.

• Matters of state: Who replaces Nanai for Queensland?

Less than a month out from the opening game of the 2023 series and Fittler's star-studded backline could either look similar or completely different to the one that was beaten in the decider by Queensland last year. 

Incumbents

NSW trio James Tedesco, Brian To'o and Daniel Tupou played in all three Origin fixtures in 2022 but Tupou's spot - now under a serious cloud due to a hamstring injury - has been up for most debate in recent months. 

Tupou was at his metre-eating best alongside Tedesco and To'o throughout last year's series and had 22 tackle busts in three matches, but did come up with several key errors at times. It was those sort of moments that cost the Blues throughout the series, particularly when they coughed up Origin I on home turf.

Tupou's ability under the high ball and consistency at club level can't be underestimated with his carries out of yardage a strong point of difference for the Blues.

Roosters coach Trent Robinson expects the 30-year-old to be out for at least a month, though, which may take Fittler's decision on the veteran out of his hands.

The selections of Tedesco and To'o appear to be much clearer with selectors unlikely to ignore their form at the Origin level despite quieter starts by their own standards at their clubs in 2023. 

The NSW skipper, Tedesco is set to reach his 20th appearance for the Blues and in doing so would become just the 12th player to do so, joining the likes of Fittler, Andrew Johns and Andrew Ettinghausen to pass the milestone. 

Panthers centre Stephen Crichton and Bulldogs five-eighth Matt Burton both featured alongside the trio in last year's Origin decider but face an uphill battle to retain their spots with some calvary set to return. 

Crichton has been in good form for the Panthers in his swansong season before departing for the Bulldogs but Burton's lack of game-time in the centres this year will immediately place his spot under a cloud.

Contenders

There are three obvious players well and truly in the mix for Fittler's backline with Tom Trbojevic, Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham all knocking on the door.

The absences of Trbojevic and Mitchell throughout last year's series was evident with the pair the stars of the show in 2021 to help the Blues reclaim the shield. 

Despite their fullback heroics at club level, their ability to transition to the centres at representative level provides NSW with a clear level of strike on both edges while Trbojevic's ability to roam the field caused havoc for Queensland. 

While Graham is yet to make his Origin debut he has featured in Blues camps in recent years after being earmarked as a teenager coming through the Rabbitohs system.

After making his Kangaroos debut at the World Cup last year, Graham is the NRL's leading try-scorer with 11 tries in nine games. It's his defensive ability which has proven just as effective and is built for Origin.

Starting his NRL career on the wing, there's no reason why the 23-year-old can't be blooded alongside Trbojevic out wide or vice versa if Fittler opts to go with both over Crichton, who would be an unfortunate player to miss out. 

Injured Bulldogs winger Josh Addo-Carr didn't feature for Fittler and the Blues last season due to form, and for many that selection call came as the most talked about all series. 

Addo-Carr went on to help the Kangaroos clinch the World Cup title with his form too hard to ignore. Like Tupou, he is in serious doubt to get back in time for Origin I but is a big option moving forward for Fittler to recall. 

Fittler's reasoning around Addo-Carr's defence and muscle through the middle (where Tupou churned out over 190 metres per Origin game and was a threat in the air) was fair at the time given what the Foxx had done previously at that level.

Another player in the mix is Roosters star Joseph Suaali'i with the winger-turned-centre's ability in the air one that could really trouble Queensland. 

Suaali'i's pending departure to Australian rugby in 2025 should do his chances no harm of future Origin selection but you get the feeling, especially for Origin I, that Fittler may stick solid and go with experience over youth with plenty of options available.