Pressure, expectation and defying the odds: 23 burning questions for finals

They're the finals questions that might take a week or month to answer when eight months of rugby league comes to an end and there's only one winner standing on the podium in October.

Who will that be? Is it who many expect it to be? How many twists and turns are ahead in a finals series that could be more unpredictable than ever? Here are the 23 questions that are hot on everyone's lips.

1. Can the Panthers achieve the three-peat?

Not since the Eels in 1981-1983 has a club clinched three consecutive premierships but the Panthers are in the best possible position to do so this year in a feat that will lock them in as one of the most dominant sides of the modern era. Their minor premiership gives them the head start with a clash against the Warriors on Saturday awaiting before a potential week off to prepare for a preliminary final, should they get through.

2. Does defence still reign supreme in the finals?

The Panthers are the only team this season that have conceded under 400 points in 24 regular season games at an impressive total of 312 (13 points per game) – bettering their efforts of a competition-best 330 in 2022 while in 2021 they conceded just 286 points. The Broncos' 425 and Warriors' 448 come in next – a distinct difference to last season when both the Sharks and Cowboys recorded a defence of under 365 for the season to be thereabouts with the Panthers.

3. Are the Broncos able to weather the Storm early?

Brisbane's decision to rest their stars in Round 27 cost them any chance of claiming the minor premiership and put them back on a collision course with the Storm – who they have not beaten in 14 matches since 2016 – in an astonishing statistic that does not paint the best picture for the Broncos to start the finals. The Storm do not fear Suncorp Stadium but Kevin Walters' side are sure to go to another gear as they chase their first title in 17 years. 

4. Are the Warriors a genuine competition threat?

'Up the Wahs' has gone global but the crunch time starts now for Andrew Webster and his men, who for at least Finals Week 1 will have to do it without star halfback Shaun Johnson due to a calf injury. The Warriors haven't been this dominant in a year since their minor premiership run in 2002 given their 2011 grand final appearance, they came from sixth to reach the big dance. Regardless of how the Warriors go in Week 1 of the finals, they will host a home final in either Week 2 (semi-final) or Week 3 (preliminary final) with the whole country set to get behind them.

5. Will Jarome Luai be available for the finals?

One obstacle for the Panthers will be the return of Jarome Luai, who has avoided surgery on a dislocated shoulder with an aim to return for a potential grand final qualifier in Week 3 of the finals. All eyes will be on Nathan Cleary and Jack Cogger in the halves for the time being, but many predicted the Panthers can't win the title without their star five-eighth. With Samoan playmaker in the side, Penrith have won 77 of 86 games for an 88.5% strike rate, while it drops to 53.8% (eight wins and six losses) without him. 

6. Can the Storm be the giant killers and steal the title?

The ever-consistent Storm, playing in their 13th-consecutive finals series – the longest stretch by an NRL club – haven't finished in third spot by fluke this year but their performances across the year haven't been as consistent as we've seen either. Storm coach Craig Bellamy often said at times he "didn't know what side was showing up" following defeats or narrow wins. However, they've looked the Storm of old in recent weeks with four wins and an average of 38 points scored. Melbourne are a team no one will want to play in September given their incredible record and finals experience but internally they'll know they can't afford to fall into any bad habits, particularly after a shock Week 1 finals exit on home turf last year.

7. What impact does Ryan Papenhuyzen have... and how does it affect Nick Meaney?

The return of Ryan Papenhuyzen in 2023 was one of the more good-feel stories of the year after a career-threatening knee injury but it's now caused a selection headache for Craig Bellamy. Papenhuyzen was all but resigned last week to a potential bench spot only in the Storm side but you get the feeling if things don't go to plan in Week 1 of the finals then Bellamy could turn to Papenhuyzen to start in the No.1 jersey. Nick Meaney has been enormous for the Storm with 11 try assists and 10 tries for the year but 'Paps' offers an X-factor few players have in the competition and it may be costly if he's not on the field.

8. Do the Broncos have the experience to contest for the title?

Adam Reynolds has 21 finals games to his name – four more than the rest of Brisbane's team this week combined – in a remarkable statistic as Kevin Walters' side prepares to go into the finals series as one of the most inexperienced teams. Penrith's young guns were in a similar position in both 2020 and 2021 and still possess one of the youngest teams on paper, so it's not all doom and gloom, but time will tell under pressure whether the Broncos can step up. The advantage for them is a wealth of experience at the Origin and international level for the squad's younger players, exposing them to the big games early.

9. Are the Raiders only making up the numbers? 

Ricky Stuart and Jarrod Croker took aim at the media this week for suggesting many assumed the Raiders wouldn't reach the finals. jetwinvip.com data in November last year suggested the Green Machine had one of the 'easiest' draws of the 2023 season, so a finals finish hasn't necessarily surprised too many. Their points differential of -137 and a recent 2-5 record coming into the finals is a concern though, but one thing about the Raiders is in finals games they're always thereabouts and have caused some upsets in the past. With all slates wiped clean and points differential now out the window, the only thing that matters now for Stuart's men is winning. The question is, can they do so against all odds first up in Newcastle?

10. Can Andrew Webster join an elite group by winning a title in his first season?

Think Michael Hagan in 2001, Ricky Stuart in 2002 and Trent Robinson in 2013. It's a rarity that a coach can win a title in his first campaign in charge with just five coaches doing so previously – Hagan, Robinson, Stuart, Phil Gould (1988) and Leo Nosworthy (1969). Can Webster be the latest to join that illustrious group?

11. Can the Knights keep their winning streak going and better their recent finals history?

The Knights have done remarkably well on their nine-game winning streak but it will mean little if they're not able to capitalise on a home final against the Raiders on Sunday. Adam O'Brien's side have made the finals under his management for an immediate exit in Week 1. Third time may be a charm, but just how far can this side go after a massive second half of the year remains to be seen.

12. Will Kalyn Ponga be impacted by his shoulder injury?

Sunday will mark two weeks since Newcastle hearts sunk when Kalyn Ponga was floored in a Jesse Ramien tackle on home turf with scans confirming a high-grade AC joint issue for the in-form star. Ponga has been undergoing intense treatment in a bid to be available for Sunday's clash against the Raiders but is no doubt set to be tested by the Green Machine – and any future opponents the longer the Knights go in the finals. For the Knights' sake and avid rugby league fans, here's hoping he can pick up where he left off continue to play a role for the Hunter side. 

13. Will the Roosters make an impact from seventh?

They're not usually reliant on results to go their way but a strong final month for the Roosters has planted them in the top eight and, in reality, they're now on even terms with the likes of the Knights, Sharks and Raiders – who had been in the top eight the entire time. Trent Robinson's side have enough firepower to match it with any team but what was most impressive about their win over the Rabbitohs was their defensive resolve before putting their arch-rivals away. It looked like a Bondi brick wall of old had returned and if it continues, the side can definitely move past the first weekend in September.

13. Will Justin Olam feature in the finals at all in 2023?

The PNG international made a return to the NRL in Round 27 but despite a strong game, he was left out of the squad to play in Week 1 of the finals. It's been a significant demotion for Olam, who claimed the Dally M's centre of the year award in 2021. What role he has to play for the Storm throughout this year's finals series remains to be seen, with another potential X-factor up Craig Bellamy's sleeve.

14. Can Brandon Smith find his best in the finals?

Smith is a big-game player who has been somewhat understated in his first season with the Roosters, but in recent weeks has started to show glimpses of getting back to the type of form that had him threatening the opposition with every carry and bone-rattling defence when at the Storm. Everyone is waiting for the big game from Smith in his new colours with the do-or-die finals a chance for him to make his mark. Will sudden-death football bring out the best in the Kiwi rake? 

15. Can the Sharks make amends for last year's straight-sets exit?

Cronulla's poor record against top eight opponents under Craig Fitzgibbon has been a point of discussion, but they now get the perfect opportunity to rectify that with a home final against the Roosters on Saturday night. It was 12 months ago the Sharks surrendered a spot in the preliminary finals with a golden point loss to the Cowboys and there's no doubting they'll want a shot at redemption on the same blades of grass this time around. 

16. Can Newcastle overcome the nights?

Newcastle would've been stoked to be scheduled another Sunday afternoon game to kick off their finals campaign given their winning record for day games sits at 10 wins, a draw and two losses for a 77 percent winning strike rate in 2023. Playing at night has been an issue with the side dropping seven of 11 games. Only the Roosters (8) have lost more but have played a further four times under lights. 

17. Will the 50-point statistic stand?

It's the best and well-known stat in rugby league: no team has ever won a premiership after conceding 50 points or more during the NRL regular season. Under this mantra, that immediately rules the Raiders, who conceded 53 to Penrith and Cronulla, who conceded 54 to Melbourne, out of the title race. The Eels went close last year to defying those odds – can the Green Machine and Sharks go a step further and bury it once and for all?

18. What impact will Jack Wighton have in last finals campaign for Raiders? 

It's been a rollercoaster year for the departing Raider, who retired from representative football just weeks after confirming a move to South Sydney in 2024. Wighton has been a force in finals games for the Raiders previously but a recent switch to the centres throws an unusual situation for him. Wighton won't want a brief finals appearance to finish his time at the Green Machine and with injuries and suspension striking the Raiders in the past month now is the time for him to step up and deliver more than ever.

19. Do the Sharks play Connor Tracey or Will Kennedy?

Both players are battling injuries for Week 1 of the finals but if the Sharks are able to get through another week, Craig Fitzgibbon has a selection headache on his hands after Tracey's strong finish to the regular season and the pending return of Kennedy from a hamstring complaint. Before his injury, Kennedy had 14 tries from 19 games and chimed in with seven try assists but coming into a finals game without any match fitness could work against him if Tracey is available.

20. How does Reece Walsh go in his first finals series?

Some said he wasn't up to it for first grade, so he went to the Warriors and proved them wrong. Others said he wasn't ready for State of Origin, and he did the same throughout June and July. Reece Walsh has been the NRL's buy of the season with the Broncos fullback now on a mission to perform under pressure for the next month. Walsh is the X-factor the Broncos need to go all the way and he can't afford to be starstruck by the occasion with a premiership in the offering. 

21. Can a team win the competition after finishing outside the top four?

No team has won the title from outside the top four since the NRL finals system replaced the McIntyre system in 2012. The eighth-placed Cowboys went close in 2017 when they met the Storm on grand final day with the likes of the Knights, Sharks, Raiders and Roosters all looking to create history this season.

22. Can Te Maire make up for lost time?

Te Maire Martin's return in Round 27 was a welcome sight for Warriors fans but not exactly the best preparation after almost five months on the sidelines as the Dolphins piled on the points in the final round. Martin had three runs and a linebreak assist but with Luke Metcalf sidelined by a hamstring injury Martin will need to get up to speed for the finals ahead of a match against his former club. 

23. Which try-scoring phenom will have the biggest impact?

The race for this year's Ken Irvine Medal as the NRL's leading try-scorer was one of the best we've seen in recent years with a host of freakish finishers chalking up impressive season totals. And while the likes of Jamayne Isaako and Alex Johnston won't feature in finals football, there's no shortage of wingers set to have an impact on the scoresheet in September. Dominic Young has 23 tries in as many games. Dallin-Watene-Zelezniak has 21 in 17, Ronaldo Mulitalo 20 in 22, Selwyn Cobbo 19 in 21, Brian To'o 17 in 20 and Melbourne's wing duo have 16 each. No corner post looks safe with these try-scoring phenoms set to make an impact.